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Analyst Says Scottish IndyRef Re-Run Blocked by BoJo Could be Risky for SNP_我的网站

A |     Another Scottish independence referendum could be risky for the regional government in Edinburgh, an academic and analyst has said.,Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister in the devolved administration, on Wednesday evening to deny her latest demand for a re-run of the 2014 plebiscite.,"As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014," Johnson wrote.,Sturgeon announced in June that Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain — whose cabinet post combines the powers of the Westminster government's attorney general and the director of public prosecutions — would ask the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding another vote without necessary approval from the Westminster Parliament.,The nationalist leader claimed Scots would vote to separate from England — where many of them work — out of a desire to reverse Brexit and opposition to 12 years of government by the Conservative Party, which holds few Parliamentary seats in Scotland.,Dr Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute and the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose told Sputnik that while pushing for a repeat referendum was central to the SNP's identity, it was also a dangerous gamble.,She said SNP's planned vote next year would only be "advisory" and "non-binding", but that it also took the party back to its basic reason for being.,"I think the SNP has the same challenges that many other independence parties like Sinn Fein or the Bloc Quebecois have — they succeed in attaining power in their own region which forces them to go from a single-issue party (independence) to develop a multitude of other policies that voters then judge them on," the academic said.,"They end up working within the system they intended to break away from and this can dilute their message," Fuller added. "Sturgeon and the SNP generally need to be seen to be continuing to pursue independence to satisfy a certain portion of their voters, and this is a way to achieve that".,Running the plebiscite — with legal sanction — and winning would give the SNP a boost going in to the next general election, due by the end of January 2025 but potentially much sooner, the analyst believes.,Even if the vote was blocked, Sturgeon has already stated that she would consider the next general election a de-facto referendum on independence, she points out. "So again, it would serve to drive out the vote for the SNP and try to focus attention on this one issue (independence) that differentiates them from the other major parties.","The only really risky situation for her would be if the Court did greenlight such an advisory referendum and it failed at the polls," Fuller stressed.,The 'Yes' campaign was leading in the polls in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, but ultimately the 10 per cent of voters declaring themselves undecided went overwhelmingly to the 'No' camp. Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to remain part of the UK.,The key unknown factor, according to Fuller, is who succeeds Johnson as next Tory leader an PM.,"My personal feeling is that we'll be seeing a turn of the Tories back to more establishment politics with likely quite different policies," she says. "I think they ran Johnson as a counter to Corbyn, but that job is done now that the Labour party has turned back to its own centre.",Fuller argues that such a major change of political direction would be significant enough that a snap general election should be called to seek a new mandate to govern. She says the SNP's performance at the polls would be crucial to their referendum bid.,Prof: Scottish Independence Requires Serious Debate Amid Soaring Cost of Living in UK16 June, 12:47 GMT,Legal Avenues,The think-tank director believes Sturgeon's appeal to the Supreme Court shows the SNP is anxious keep its latest bid for a referendum on firm legal ground, since its declared pretext for the vote is so Scotland can re-apply for membership of the European Union (EU). But she cautioned that would open "a whole can of worms.","Firstly, it clouds the entire idea of independence. It Scotland were to re-join the EU, which is heading towards getting rid of unanimity voting, the average Scot would have significantly less power than they do if they remain in the UK," she says.,"It is not 'independence' in any actual meaning of the word," Fuller stressed. "How do you run an 'independence' referendum on the understanding that if you win, you are going to join a larger, even less democratic, entity?",But more importantly, an unsanctioned 'indyref' would put the SNP in the same bracket as the coalition of Catalan nationalist parties who held an unofficial plebiscite in 2017, in which only supporters of independence bothered to vote. The political organisers found themselves arrested and charged or, in the case of then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, fleeing abroad as a fugitive.,"There are countries in the EU, like Spain, that are very much against separatist referendums, so getting some kind of legal blessing for this is probably necessary to retain their support," Fuller says.。    China and India’s oil, coal and gas purchases pumped some $24 billion in revenue into Russia’s coffers between March and May, nearly doubling the $13 billion the Asian giants spent during the same period in 2021, China Customs and India Trade Ministry data has shown.,The People’s Republic accounted for over 78 percent of the revenue - $18.9 billion. India, for its part, bought $5.1 billion in Russian energy – quintupling purchases it made a year ago by taking advantage of discounts on crude made as Moscow maneuvered to shift supplies away from the European and US markets.,Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), predicted that the Asian giants aren’t likely to stop their Russian energy binge anytime soon amid rising energy prices, and the West’s politicized decision to ban Russian crude oil and coal, and to limit gas imports.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to IndiaYesterday, 10:29 GMT,CREA figures indicate that China overtook Germany in the first 100 days after the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February, but that the European market still accounted for a majority of top ten importer nations during this period.,China was the biggest importer of Russian energy in the first 100 days after the invasion, according to @CREACleanAir, and India's rise this year has been dramatic. Still, Europe as a bloc has made up the bulk of Russia's energy sales https://t.co/O7rTG4iI0p pic.twitter.com/rVuXsPv1nU— Dan Murtaugh (@danmurtaugh) July 6, 2022,Combined with Russian discounts, the possibility of ruble-yuan payments (and a similar ruble-rupee scheme currently being finalized), the BRICS nations have enjoyed a dramatic ramping up of the type of ‘win-win’ cooperation consistently talked about by Chinese officials, with Moscow ‘winning’ new markets, and Beijing and Delhi a cheap and dependable source of energy.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,Sanctions Rebound,The United States banned the import of most (but not all) Russian energy in March, with the European Union following suit in the months to follow by banning Russian coal and fertilizers (which is an energy-intensive sector), promising to “phase out” Russian oil, and searching for alternatives to Russian natural gas.,While these measures were meant to “punish” Russia for its military operation in Ukraine, their impact so far has been to send already high energy prices and inflation soaring, and sparking fears of a steep recession.,Germany, the European industrial giant accounting for more than a quarter of the EU’s GDP, has been hit hard by the self-inflicted dual calamities of inflation and spiking energy costs. On Sunday, German Trade Union Confederation chairwoman Yasmin Fahimi warned that “entire branches” of the country’s industry, including aluminum, glass and the chemical sectors, are at risk of “collapsing permanently” thanks to the gas shortages. Germany depended on Russia for 40 percent of its gas and a quarter of its oil before the escalation of the Ukraine crisis.,No Plan C: Europe Facing Trouble as Norway's Oil, Gas Production DecliningYesterday, 15:27 GMT,Even the US, where Russian crude oil accounted for just one percent of total consumption in 2021, has been affected by the Biden administration’s energy ban, with gasoline prices setting records and sending shockwaves of price hikes reverberating on all other sectors of the economy dependent on road transport.,US and EU officials have reacted with general indifference to ordinary citizens’ economic distress, with President Biden blaming Russia and calling inflation and the gas price jump “Putin’s price hike,” while in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has recommended that people simply ‘turn down the thermostat a couple degrees’ to compensate for lost Russian energy. On Monday, EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Josep Borrell admitted that the transition away from Russian gas and oil is creating “serious difficulties” for members’ economies, but stressed that “this is the price which we must pay to defend our democracies and international law.”。

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